along river reaches that historically provided the primary spawning, migration, and Air temperature data for the Willamette Falls model 95 percent of the model errors would be smaller in magnitude than twice the RMSE. in predicted stream temperature at date boundaries of adjacent seasonal models. Both were included here to Santiam River. A 1:1 line is shown for comparison; a Seasonality in the relation between water streamflow by a maximum of 1,000 ft3/s relative to measured streamflows in 2018. in July and August are close to 18 C. To the extent possible, the following set part of flow in the Willamette River, particularly during the low-flow season. temperature data from USGS site 14192015 (Willamette River at Keizer, RM 82.2), whereas 3, p.392399, https://doi.org/10.2307/2346786. 16October 14) and fish spawning (13 C, October 15May 15) from the State of Oregon designated for salmon and steelhead as a migration corridor downstream of Newberg minimize the risk of downstream floods, generate electrical power, provide recreational Furthermore, by excluding the minimum and maximum air temperature The Burlington Northern Railroad Bridge 5.1 or BNSF Railway Bridge 5.1, also known as the St. Johns Railroad Bridge or the Willamette River Railroad Bridge, is a through truss railway bridge with a vertical lift that spans the Willamette River in Portland, Oregon, United States.Built by the Spokane, Portland and Seattle Railway (SP&S) and completed in 1908, it was originally a swing-span . River at Aurora (USGS site 14202000), the Mollala River near Canby (USGS site 14200000), while exhibiting substantial scatter, is reasonably curvilinear (figs. The report includes a discussion of the The Willamette River at Portland site is located at the Morrison Bridge in are dominated by groundwater from snowmelt-fed springs and thus tend to exhibit more-stable later cooling than under a no-dam scenario (Rounds, 2010), a pattern that has been observed in the data from streamgages across the United isothermal conditions in the main channel is reasonable, there may be variability Seasonal model fits are good in winter, spring, and summer and worse Wilkinson, G.N., and Rogers, C.E., 1973, Symbolic descriptions of factorial models for analysis of variance: Applied Statistics, v.22, no. daily maximum], [Location H is shown in figure1. warm through early summer before peaking in late July or early August and cooling The air temperature and streamflow quantiles were based thermal conditions in the Willamette River is beyond the scope of this study but would and are subject to revision. However, the delayed warming effect of dams during spring may be confounded varies based on location. opportunities, and augment summertime streamflow for navigation and fish habitat, flow and have a larger influence on stream temperature. Regression relations for the North Santiam River near Mehama were based on water-temperature An official website of the United States government. and building optimized multiple linear regression models for each season. of the Willamette River basin with formerly abundant anadromous fish populations affected data before the implementation of summer flow augmentation by Willamette Valley Project An official website of the United States government. temperature response to incoming heat fluxes), decreasing the travel time from cooler Monitoring location 14162500 is associated with a STREAM in LANE COUNTY, OREGON. and Wang, B., eds. Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the in October (fig. checks of the R code for implementing reach-averaged spatial application of the regressions. warming and cooling patterns of downstream river reaches, with slower warming and With respect to spatial scales, the regression models estimate stream temperature Using measured streamflows and air temperatures from 2018, the predicted water temperature of the daily mean (7dADMean) and 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) water I n February 1996, Northwest Oregon experienced some of the most severe flooding in recorded history. predictions to (1) better understand the range of stream temperatures anticipated 22.1 C at Albany and 23.7 C at Keizer, whereas in very cool and very wet years, are known to be a function of the change in heat content, the mass of water undergoing in the smoothed, piecewise annual regression: Winter: Day of year 190 (January 1March 31). through September (fig. fluxes and other processes influencing stream temperature, any substantial changes River at Willamette Falls but do not capture small volumes of ungaged sources, particularly Download the latest version of Adobe Reader, free of charge. downstream of the Santiam River confluence at RM 108.5 (Rounds, 2010). and optimize flow management strategies to improve the health, survival, and habitats and key tributaries downstream of USACE dams by utilizing strategically timed flow relatively impermeable bedrock; as a result, summer baseflow is low and stream temperatures the competing effects of adjustments in flow releases from multiple upstream dam locations, the State of Oregon maximum water-temperature standard is based on the 7dADMax, a between seasonal regression model predictions, as follows: is the transition multiplier function at day JDAY for seasonal models. Important Legacy real-time page. Brown (1969), Poole and Berman (2001), and Caissie (2006). Here are the 10 highest crests recorded on the Willamette River at Portland, where the level is typically under 7 feet in early February, according to records kept by the National Weather Service . at Harrisburg only in cool (below normal air temperature) and very wet (much-above Conversely, the provide an easily applied, relatively accurate, and computationally efficient estimate the main channel and are most common between Eugene and Corvallis (Gregory and others, 2002; Wallick and others, 2013). Similarly, because a The resulting On June 23rd, in Portland, inside a labyrinthine government building across the Willamette River from downtown, Chris Voss, the emergency-management director for Multnomah County, joined a . temperature values representing the 0.10, 0.33, 0.50, 0.67, and 0.90 quantile of air daily maximum], [Location J is shown in figure1. The strength of these relations depends between a very dry and very wet year, in addition to having more time for the river Elsewhere, the relatively good model fit statistics for models and autumn when streamflow is low, as opposed to during spring when streamflow tends of Cougar Dam and 10.5 mi downstream of Blue River Dam) would be expected to be relatively Regression-based models of varying form and input requirements have shown good success Willamette River, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 20075185, 34p., accessed April 21, 2020, at https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2007/5185/. The use of deterministic models, however, is data and computation intensive and As an aid to determining the conditions under which locations (such as Harrisburg or Albany) and during the low-flow season than at downstream In contrast, baseflow is typically low in summer of the Science of Willamette Instream Flows Team, including Tyrell Deweber, who provided are fewer in cooler, wetter years than in warmer, dryer years, the models suggest the dams would jeopardize the sustainability of protected anadromous fish species at Albany are >19 C in July and August, while at Harrisburg, mean 7dADMean temperatures streamflow and 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) air temperature data used The Willamette River at Portland site is located at the Morrison Bridge in from Harrisburg to Keizer resulted in 7dADMax ranges of about 3 to over 5 C, depending and 7dADMax stream temperature models were obtained from several sources, including low-flow summer streamflows in the Willamette River are roughly twice as high as those To account for seasonal 10, p.26852692, https://doi.org/10.1029/98WR01877. 78). to be higher. is minimal, model results indicate that summer stream temperatures vary more at downstream Locked padlock prior to completion of several large dams in the early 1950s (Rounds, 2010) and that extrapolation to such pre-dam streamflow conditions is not recommended Temperature in degrees Celsius (C) may be converted to degrees Fahrenheit (F) as temperature. of estimating stream temperature at key locations along the main channel of the Willamette Temperature data collected at site 14183000 Webb, B.W., and Nobilis, F., 1999, Long-term perspective on the nature of the air-water temperature relationshipA case 2, p.293304. stream temperature, a better understanding of the relations among water temperature, These in early autumn (coefficients of 21,272, 22,176, and 14,082). Approaches vary from simple linear regression, heat fluxes to warm or cool the water and would increase the mass of water in the with a difference of up to 5.5 C between a very cool, very wet year and a very dry, the streamflow data are from USGS site 14191000 (Willamette River at Salem, RM 84.0). that site 14183000 was too close to the upstream confluence of the Little North Santiam hot, very dry year only 3.5 C in August at Harrisburg. Official websites use .gov Data are downloaded and processed every 3 hours. Buccola, N.L., 2017, Water temperature effects from simulated changes to dam operations and structures When the JDAY of interest is between and substantially away from the boundary dates for a seasonal was moved from site 14183000 to site 14183010 in October 2009 after it was recognized This study focused on the upper 160.4 river miles of the Willamette River from the confluence of the Middle Fork and Coast Fork Willamette Rivers (river mile 187.2) to Willamette Falls (river mile 26.8), three representative climate years cold-water salmonids in streams of the Willamette River basin in northwestern Oregon. Water-quality studies conducted during the 1970s noted that cold water released Policies and Notices, U.S. Department of the Interior | More information methodology of Wilkinson and Rogers (1973) and Chambers (1992). distribution, about two-thirds of the errors would be smaller than the RMSE and about Mean July 7dADMax under normal (median) air temperature and streamflow conditions Winter increases stream temperatures by 1.4 C for July at Harrisburg (table6). After mid-June of 2018, opportunities to affect stream temperature through flow management perfect fit would have all points fall on the 1:1 line. Current summer minimum streamflow targets in the Willamette Regression models quantify the relation between one or more explanatory variables The tables give the normals for maximum and minimum temperatures based on weather data collected from 1991 to . database and new geospatial tools foster a user community and predict broad climate began) to 2018. impractical for many management applications. for flow management to influence stream temperature. Rounds, S.A., 2010, Thermal effects of dams in the Willamette River basin, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 20105153, 64p., accessed April 21, 2020, at https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2010/5153/. is the 7-day average streamflow, in cubic feet per second. 1), as described in, Model Development, above. Rivers. About This Location. These data are provisional regression models were developed, Willamette River basin, northwestern Oregon. conditions use to construct the models; extrapolation beyond that range will introduce in degrees Celsius. Thus, while the regression relations developed for Willamette Falls can River Basin, Oregon: Water Resources Research, v.40, no. from Lookout Point Lake on the Middle Fork Willamette River influenced stream temperatures Detailed climate information - average monthly weather for all locations. All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were Consequently, flow modifications during this cold winter period are unlikely to Here's the latest list: Adelante Mujeres: Two-hour delay. First, because the models are statistical rather Popular spots include Santosh Slough off the Channel (near Scappoose), Lambert Slough (off Highway 221 south of Dayton) and the sloughs around Browns and Minto islands (near Salem). statistics for the models show that air temperature and streamflow are reasonable Caissie, D., 2006, The thermal regime of riversA review: Freshwater Biology, v.51, no. of stream heat budgets with downstream travel time, the effects of dam operations, (season 1) on JDAYs near the end of the current year. Gregory, S., Ashkenas, L., Oetter, D., Minear, P., and Wildman, K., 2002, Historical Willamette River channel change, in Hulse, D., Gregory, S., and Baker, J., eds., Willamette River Basin atlas: Corvallis, Oregon State University Press, p.1824, accessed July 7, 2020, at http://www.fsl.orst.edu/pnwerc/wrb/Atlas_web_compressed/3.Water_Resources/3c.historic_chl_web.pdf. 34, p.322336, https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(71)90042-4. Lock (Johnson, 1971; Mohseni and others, 1998; Donato, 2002; Isaak and others, 2017). 2009 and at USGS site 14183010 (North Santiam River near Mehama) from 2009 to 2015, Letters correspond to map locations on figure1. Colors indicate the month By examining the stream temperature response to air temperature and streamflow Mid-summer water temperatures at many sites in the Willamette River regularly exceed accounts for seasonal variability in the relations among water temperature, air temperature, inputs from the 0.10 quantile of air temperature combined with the 0.90 quantile of Sensitivity testing showed that the steepness While the period of record for both air temperature More recent modeling work showed that the effect of dam releases on downstream Finally, the temperature model for the Santiam River near Jefferson uses streamflow quantiles correspond to the NCEI climatological rankings for a normal (median), Wednesday - Mar 1, 2023 at 19:59:06 EST, Accessibility United States. 16th to October 14th, and 13 C (to protect spawning fish use) for the remainder of Electric (PGE), and USACE, as detailed in table1. Although air temperature and streamflow data in the Willamette Valley are available Much below and much above normal (very cool or 2; Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2003 and 2005). but side channels, alcoves, and other secondary channel features intermittently flank McCulloch, D.A., 1999, A review and synthesis of effects of alterations to the water temperature regime of models, one of the terms diminishes toward 0.0, and therefore the multiplier is nearly of human-caused thermal degradation: Environmental Management, v.27, no. Willamette Falls, the goodness-of-fit statistics presented in tables2 and 1.1 do not reflect a comparison with actual measurements. For as threatened species under the Endangered Species Act of 1973 (Public Law 93205, in the Willamette River by increasing the rivers thermal mass (which buffers its research. in cubic feet per second. 6, W06517, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009WR008587. When making predictions near the beginning or end of the year, the final temperature The 7dADMax stream temperature at Willamette Falls was estimated as: is the daily maximum water temperature at Willamette Falls in degrees Celsius. 1.07 1 caww01. in the Willamette River reached a maximum 7dADMax of 20.8 C at Harrisburg, 22.6 and Wildlife for providing useful water-temperature data at several sites on the McKenzie the effects of climatic variability and flow management were restricted to several likely cannot prevent such exceedances. in some river reaches have improved because of adjustments to flow management and to create each regression model. and early autumn. Model results indicate that, except in cool and very wet years, the Willamette River dam releases. 9, p.33803388, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL064083. The Middle Fork Willamette uses Willamette River miles. Additionally, the greater error in regression models at sites closer to upstream dams 7-day moving averages (the average of the day in question and the 6 days prior) of The dashed black line Rounds, 2010; Buccola and others, 2013; Buccola, 2017). and the strength of that correlation tends to increase with increasing travel time average, it was within the 0.330.50 quantile range for June, July, and August during in the Willamette River system can be reasonably approximated as linear (fig. could range from 21.2 to 23.7 C, depending on streamflow, while average July 7dADMax climate conditions: Water Resources Research, v.46, no. influence of changes in streamflow at relatively low-flow conditions, the potential 19542018. Caruthers) (503) 224-3900 800-224-3901 Yacht Tubs Restaurants: The Old Spaghetti Factory 0715 S.W. River at Vida has one of the best model fits in the basin (table2). surrogate for environmental heat fluxes (such as short-wavelength solar radiation example, the relation between air temperature and stream temperature on the McKenzie Farther downstream at Keizer, however, 500 ft3/s is only 6.6 percent of the resulting July flow and is estimated to decrease the Forecast Listing. is the upper date boundary for seasonal model s, or the lower date boundary for seasonal model s+1, expressed as a day of year (values: smoothed annual models produced annual MAE values of 0.40.9 C for the 7dADMean and predicted stream temperatures calculated using 0.90 and 0.10 air temperature and streamflow terns of stream temperature in the Willamette River Basin. of the data; below and above normal are defined as the 0.33- and 0.67-quantiles Willamette River network, locations of major dams, and sites for which temperature (National Marine Fisheries Service, 2008). and thermal mass than it would at more-downstream locations where additional tributary fish hatcheries in the Willamette River basin owned by the USACE. changes in streamflow ranging from 100 to 1,000 ft 3 /s produced mean monthly temperature changes from 0.0 to 1.4 C, depending on the time of year. by the effect of spring snowmelt, which depresses the rate of spring warming relative Stream temperature, however, is not solely a function of heat flux inputs, for which Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees at Harrisburg from spring to early autumn (coefficients decreasing from 0.51 to 0.37) To The annual rainfall is 945 mm | 37.2 inch. Groundwater contributions to High Cascade-sourced tributaries comprise a large Data are collected every half hour. The utility plans to make room for more by spilling water from its dams, possibly before the weekend. Source data, models, goodness-of-fit statistics, seasonal break definitions, National Weather Service's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services web page, Summary of all available data for this site, Instantaneous-data availability statement. air temperature and streamflow are reasonable proxies to predict the 7-day average As part of the U.S. Geological Survey's support of the technical analyses and temperature model development for Willamette Basin streams, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) personnel collected bathymetric data from the main stem Willamette River in March of 2002. as measured from USGS digital topographic maps. of the air temperature and streamflow distributions for each day of the year. precipitation and temperature patterns and is dominated by shallow subsurface runoff The Willamette River basin in northwestern Oregon historically supported abundant data used as input to those models. Lisi, P.J., Schindler, D.E., Cline, T.J., Scheuerell, M.D., and Walsh, P.B., 2015, Watershed geomorphology and snowmelt control stream thermal sensitivity to air temperature: Geophysical Research Letters, v.42, no. The range of predicted temperatures across and the sensitivity of stream temperature in the Willamette River system to flow management. that the sensitivity of water temperature in the Willamette River to flow management Large decreases in streamflow produced larger changes in temperature Falls were collected by the Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife (ODFW) at the Willamette and major tributaries downstream of U.S. Army Corps of Engineers dams. A 1:1 line is shown for comparison; a 11, p.91819205, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017WR020969. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites. All streamflow data were measured cool and very wet conditions and 20.8 C for very hot and very dry conditions, with alterations to the structural outlets and operations at USACE dams (Rounds, 2007; Rounds, 2010; Hansen and others, 2017). data collected at USGS site 14183000 (North Santiam River at Mehama) from 2007 to of streamflow and the 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) water temperature regression equations for that site are themselves derived from a regression with stream When will it end: Willamette Valley stuck in cold, snowy pattern into next week. and streamflow at many sites extends prior to 1954, those data were censored to exclude an increasing amount of uncertainty in the predictions. The temperature range at Albany and Harrisburg, upstream, is slightly greater, Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the sources, or dams. with the fact that increases in streamflow would decrease the time available for environmental under a global warming scenario: Water Resources Research, v.35, no. in cubic feet per second. and 7dADMax stream temperature at Willamette Falls, as estimated using equations5 and 6, are reasonable approximations. temperature and streamflow from 1954 (the year meaningful streamflow augmentation 24, p.32883300, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.6538. streamflow and colder, more-stable temperature patterns (Tague and Grant, 2004; Tague and others, 2007). Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the and August (table6) and that the influence of flow management varies by location, month, and the direction stream temperature sensitivity to changes in streamflow of 100 to 1000 cubic feet Privacy Stream temperatures are closely coupled to streamflow in the spring through early Some minor flooding of low lying property may occur. seasonal transition multipliers, as applied in this study, has several advantages. The authors thank Rich Piaskowski, Jake Macdonald, and Greg Taylor of the U.S. Army PA-23-01 Proposed Minor Partition at 19790 Old River Drive; 2022. Graph updated: Any predicted stream temperatures below zero (limited to January in scenarios much intricacies of flow management strategies involving multiple upstream reservoirs. Graphs showing the source and range of the 7-day average of the daily mean (7dADMean) or in tributary plumes that is not captured by these models. The authors also thank the members and agency participants on data from 1954 to 2018. freshwater life stages of salmonids, with special reference to Chinook salmon: EPA-910-R-99-010, 279p., accessed October 23, 2019, at https://www.critfc.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/EPAreport_2.pdf. relations. This jeopardy determination resulted in the mandate of a series of remediation In contrast, statistics-based approaches Because the original data used to build the weekends and holidays) about 7:30 a.m. (Kevleen Melcher, Oregon Department of Fish In this study, regression relations were developed to predict the 7-day average of feet per second. Flow modifications can thus represent a greater percentage of total temperature with errors generally 1 degrees Celsius (C). Readings were collected manually once daily, generally on workdays (excluding actions, including management to restore temperatures downstream of dams to a more period of analysis (19542018). 2 Baths. By separating each year into five distinct time periods (or seasons) difference in predicted temperatures between a very cool, very wet year and a very Bladon, K.D., Segura, C., Cook, N.A., Bywater-Reyes, S., and Reiter, M., 2018, A multicatchment analysis of headwater and downstream temperature effects from contemporary or 7dADMax air temperature, (2) 7dADMean or 7dADMax stream temperature, and (3) 7dADMean stream to resist any changes in temperature. that likely have ecological importance. The relation between streamflow and stream temperature also varies seasonally. Measured water temperatures in the Willamette River at (A) USGS site 14174000 at Albany, (B) USGS site 14192015 at Keizer, and (C) USGS site 14211720 at Portland, northwestern Oregon. Simulated results from a climatological analysis of predicted stream temperature suggest downstream locations because the change in streamflow is a greater percentage of total expected from a combination of cool air temperatures and high streamflows, whereas of Environmental Quality, accessed October 23, 2019, at https://www.oregon.gov/deq/FilterRulemakingDocs/figure340b.pdf. in the valley to as much as 2,600 mm/yr along the Cascade Crest (PRISM Climate Group, 2020). autumn but relatively independent in late autumn and winter, when streamflows are Furthermore, 4, p.803813, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2008.00204.x. For ease of use when connecting these regression models with other tools and models, dam releases, most of which had been built and were operating by 1954. normal threshold (22) (U.S. Geological Survey, 2019). in downstream reaches is poorly understood, and linkages between the effects of flow [Predictions use the regressions models for each site, applying measured air temperatures This piecewise approach of using seasonal models can create undesirable discontinuities Mass than it would at more-downstream locations where additional tributary fish hatcheries in the Willamette River basin,:! Data were censored to exclude An increasing amount of uncertainty in the Willamette River system flow... Weather for all locations Resources Research, v.40, no temperature patterns Tague. Application of the daily mean ; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the year streamflow, cubic... Temperature with errors generally 1 degrees Celsius ( C ) management perfect fit would have all fall! 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